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14 February 2024
Online version
Hidden Gems From Our Language Models Database
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This month, we shed some light on the lesser-known metrics from our inflation databases.
Most of the data has been there from the start, but to be honest, it has been a bit hidden... There are 610 time series in our database, all generated from our specially trained Language Models and measuring inflation news through different angles.
All this data can be "arranged" to different use cases.
In this letter, we also take a look at the recent US and Euro area NIPI and inflation data. While inflation is well off its COVID peak, our data has been suggesting the easing trend should not be confidently extrapolated from here.
Finally, the News Balance App, which we released at the end of 2023, has been upgraded - and there is more to come in the coming months!
Do not hesitate to reach out if you have questions on Language Models or inflation data.
Enjoy the reading!
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Alternative inflation metrics
NIPI, Positive and Negative News Breakdown, Diffusion Indices with adjustable time windows and News Balance: read more.
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NIPIs, in the aftermath of the January Euro area HICP and US CPI releases
In the normalisation process post-COVID, the Euro area NIPI has some way to go, even more so than the US by our measures. There is no obvious reason (in our data) to expect an imminent return to 2% annualised trend in the euro area: read more.
In the US, the NIPI has continued to track well the near-term volatility, as the below chart illustrates - and also likely remains consistent with 3% or above inflation rates.
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NewsBot App Feature Upgade
The NewsBot App is used to search through recent inflation relevant news. It is also used to build "News Balance" time series.
Two upgrades have been released yesterday:
(1) News Volume history associated with the query is now provided. See the redesigned "Signals" tab. The News Volume is reported as the average daily number of news, over the 7-day and 30-day windows.
(2) Longer daily data history for the News Balance and News Volume: 2y up from 1y. That may not seem a lot, but those calculations are computationally heavy, so bear with us as we keep expand our capabilities to deliver even longer history.
Whether you have suggestions for the next update or would like a demo, do not hesitate to reach out.
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Earlier newsletters
Blog Post: Can Language Models Tackle Data Blind Spots? Introducing the "News Balance", Bespoke Inflation Series, 30/11/2023. Available here.
Blog Post: Comparing Car Price Dynamics in the US, China, the Euro area and Japan in 2023, using the News Balance, 30/11/2023. Available here.
Newsletter: Unleashing Language Models for Economic Insights, 30/11/2023. Available here.
Newsletter: Past The Peak: ChatGPT Hype And Headline Inflation, 28/6/2023. Available here.
Blog Post: Language Models Can Track Track Food Prices In an Easing Phase Too, 16/6/2023. Available here.
Newsletter: Is this "Normal"?, 10/3/2023. Available here.
Blog Post: Could Japan Inflation Dynamics Be Spiraling Out of Control?, 7/3/2023. Available here.
Newsletter: The Inflation NewsBot Just Learnt Two New Languages!, 24/1/2023. Available here.
Newsletter: What do ChatGPT and Natural Language Processing Mean For Research and Investment?, 13/1/2023. Available here.
Newsletter: Inflation Volatility Regime Change And Alternative Data, 17/11/2022. Available here.
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