Our News Inflation Pressure Indices successfully predicted the rise in global food prices
According to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization, global prices rose 4.6% in December 2020, reaching the highest since July 2014.
What did our News Inflation Index signal, in retrospect?
At the global level, the index did capture a sharp rise throughout December, coming after several months of pretty strong increase.
In the chart below, a value above 50 indicates a positive (inflationary) newsflow. Our indicator kept reaching multi-year highs throughout the second half of 2020.
Note that the index has kept rising at the start of 2021.
One specificity of our News Inflation Pressure Index is that it is available in real-time. The index is computed every day, with the news of the last 24H immediately included.
NIPI vs Breakeven Inflation, US
The NIPI is available with a split by sector and country (more info here).
Don't hesitate to reach out for more details.